Review of $20 Per Gallon By Christopher Steiner
How the Rise in the Cost of Gasoline Will Affect American Society
Oct 11, 2009
Americans were shocked by gasoline prices of $4 per gallon in the summer of 2008. Although the cost of gas has fallen dramatically since that time (Energy Information Administration webpage, viewed on October 11, 2009), gasoline is, of course, a nonrenewable resource. The petroleum that is refined to yield gasoline and many other products will someday run out.
The majority of accessible petroleum may have already been tapped, according to Kenneth S. Deffeyes, author of the 2003 book Hubbart's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage (Princeton University Press), causing oil supplies to begin to slip as early as 2020. As oil becomes scarcer, the global cost of gasoline will rise. Clearly, cheap gas is neither "normal" nor sustainable. Steiner rightly points out that the price of gasoline is dependent on the global marketplace, not merely on political factors that are important in the United States.
Steiner's book strives to address how much more expensive gasoline – specifically, $6, $10, or even $20 per gallon – may affect Americans' lifestyle, neighborhoods, and society. But why exactly does Steiner think that paying more for gasoline (and, in fact, all petroleum products), a prospect that fills many with trepidation, will cause positive changes in American culture?
High Gasoline Prices Will Reduce Car Culture and Foster Public Transit
The most obvious effect of high gasoline prices is that driving will be markedly more expensive. "Monthly gas station bills for families that were $400 at $2 [per gallon] will be $1,200 at $6 [per gallon]", Steiner calculates. Although paying $6 for a gallon of gas may seem to be a remote prospect, economist Jeffrey Rubin of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce suggests that this may be a reality as soon as 2010 or 2012 (summarized in Steiner, 2009).
Furthermore, Rubin flatly states that "By 2012, there should be some 10 million fewer vehicles on American roadways than there are today -- a decline that dwarfs all previous adjustments including those during the two OPEC oil shocks" (quoted in Steiner, 2009).
Electric cars will slowly replace gasoline cars as gas becomes more expensive. However, Steiner anticipates that electric cars will be relatively rare at first because electric cars are much more expensive than comparably-sized gasoline cars.
Public transportation, especially train systems, will clearly offer an alternative for people who do not want to maintain their own vehicle and pay for gasoline in a world of gasoline at $6 or $10 per gallon. In fact, Steiner anticipates that trains will become a major force in public transit, replacing buses and especially cars for many urban Americans.
Steiner maintains that high gas prices will mean fewer cars on the road, resulting in fewer deaths due to car accidents, less air pollution, and a reduction in obesity (because more Americans will choose to walk, rather than drive, to run errands that cover two miles or less). Steiner's argument that costly gas will benefit urban residents is persuasive. But, how will stratospheric gasoline prices affect the lifestyle of people in places where there is not, currently, any alternative to driving?
The Effect of $20 per Gallon on Small Towns in America
Steiner predicts that higher gasoline prices will lead to a rebirth of small towns in America. He makes a heroic effort to convince readers that costly gasoline will prompt small-town America to redevelop their Main Streets, preserve local businesses, and become more tightly-knit communities. Specifically, "...consumerist knickknacks will cost more in small towns, but the core lures to small town neighborhoods will be fully reinvigorated with the advent of high energy costs: closeness, trust, convenience, and familiarity" (Steiner, 2009).
Steiner may be correct, but he does not fully acknowledge the hardship that small towns will experience when gasoline prices approach $6 or $10 per gallon. Small towns that currently do not have a grocery store, hospital, hardware store, or clothing store will be hit particularly hard, because these towns tend to be located where driving is absolutely necessary to get from one place to another. Their residents will lose their way of life, and some may be forced back into the poverty their small-town parents or grandparents managed to escape.
Expensive Gasoline Will Spell the End for Big Box Stores
Big box stores such as Wal-Mart, Target, and Lowes need cheap oil to prosper because their business model depends on cheaply moving goods from where they are made to where they are sold (Steiner, 2009). If the cost of transporting these goods increases, their price must be raised to cover for it.
Steiner predicts that, when gasoline approaches $14 per gallon, Walmart and other big box stores will not be able to survive in their current form. Goods that are currently made overseas and shipped to the United States would have to be produced domestically.
Steiner's prediction is convincing, and many would agree that a return of manufacturing jobs to America, and a greater emphasis on manufacturing quality, would be beneficial. However, as Steiner acknowledges, this would cause many goods to be more expensive and less affordable for the poor. What Steiner does not fully discuss is how the demise of big box stores may increase the disparity in material goods that are available for poorer, especially rural, people versus more well-off, particularly urban, people. A wider gap between rural and urban communities may have important political consequences for America's future, an issue that is incompletely explored by Steiner in his book.
$20 Per Gallon Will Improve American Society in the Long Run, But Cause Short-Term Pain
Improvement in public transportation, public health, community awareness, and air quality may all be side effects of expensive gasoline, as detailed by Christopher Steiner in his new book $20 Per Gallon. However, urban areas will reap these benefits much sooner than rural areas, which may cause political tensions in the United States in the future.
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